How to Maintain a Competitive Advantage in Dubai

Rather than marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is progressively viewed as a consolidation year, in which diversification-led growth becomes more deeply ingrained in the region's economic model, decreasing reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing durability to external shocks. Projections from significant institutions broadly converge on a stronger GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic demand, continued non-oil expansion, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

The World Bank, on the other hand, projects 3.2 percent growth in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. The IMF Sees momentum improving, with GCC output development forecasted to rise from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, showing a shift towards more positive general conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) tasks international development easing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies simply above 4 percent. On that contrast, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would place the area materially ahead of the world average and somewhat above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, strengthening the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that local danger conditions remain contained and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors currently represent more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has actually continued to rise as governments broaden investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is predicted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and increasing investment in technology and AI-related infrastructure.

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Public-sector investment and reform stay main to sustaining this trend. Policy procedures focused on drawing in foreign direct investment, relieving foreign ownership guidelines, broadening capital markets, and supporting private-sector participation continue to underpin non-oil growth and lower the area's exposure to oil price volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the growth outlook, oil earnings are anticipated to play a supportive function in 2026.

Oxford Economics anticipates Brent crude prices to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, restricting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is forecast to increase once again in the second half of the year, with a full relaxing of remaining production caps most likely by mid-2027.

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Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly encouraging of growth. Inflation is anticipated to stay low, with the IMF forecasting typical inflation of 2 percent across the region in 2026. Stable costs are assisting maintain genuine home earnings and underpin customer costs, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.